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Future Arctic Temperature Change Resulting from a Range of Aerosol Emissions Scenarios

Cameron Wobus, Mark Flanner, Marcus C. Sarofim, Maria Cecilia P. Moura, and Steven J. Smith


June 15, 2016
The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols—specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate—depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. The authors use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios.
North America